2015 Prince Edward Island general election

2015 Prince Edward Island general election

← 2011 May 4, 2015 (2015-05-04) 2019 →

All 27 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island
14 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout82.10%Increase[1]
  First party Second party
 
Leader Wade MacLauchlan Rob Lantz
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative
Leader since February 21, 2015 February 28, 2015
Leader's seat York-Oyster Bed Ran in Charlottetown-Brighton (lost)
Last election 22 seats, 51.39% 5 seats, 40.18%
Seats before 20 3
Seats won 18 8
Seat change Decrease2 Increase5
Popular vote 33,481 30,663
Percentage 40.83% 37.39%
Swing Decrease10.56pp Decrease2.79pp

  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Peter Bevan-Baker Michael Redmond
Party Green New Democratic
Leader since November 3, 2012 October 13, 2012
Leader's seat Kellys Cross-Cumberland Ran in Montague-Kilmuir (lost)
Last election 0 seats, 4.36% 0 seats, 3.16%
Seats before 0 0
Seats won 1 0
Seat change Increase1 Steady
Popular vote 8,857 8,997
Percentage 10.81% 10.97%
Swing Increase6.45pp Increase7.81pp

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via plurality results by each riding.

Premier before election

Wade MacLauchlan
Liberal

Premier after election

Wade MacLauchlan
Liberal

The 2015 Prince Edward Island general election was held May 4, 2015, to elect members of the 65th General Assembly of Prince Edward Island.[2] Under amendments passed by the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island in 2008, Prince Edward Island elections are usually held on the first Monday of October in the fourth calendar year, unless it is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Prince Edward Island due to a motion of no confidence, or at the request of the premier. The current government had hinted that an election would be held "before Mother's Day" 2015, and such a dissolution would avoid any conflicts with the next federal election, expected to be held in October 2015.

The governing Liberals were elected to a third consecutive majority government under Premier Wade MacLauchlan, while the Progressive Conservatives made slight gains despite party leader Rob Lantz failing to win election in Charlottetown-Brighton. The Green Party, meanwhile, won its first seat in the legislature, with leader Peter Bevan-Baker elected in Kellys Cross-Cumberland.[3] The New Democratic Party was shut out.

Results

18 8 1
Liberal Progressive Conservative GP
Results of the election by polling division
Summary of the Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island election results
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2011 Dissol. 2015 Change # % Change
Liberal Wade MacLauchlan 27 22 20 18 −4 33,481 40.83% −10.55%
Progressive Conservative Rob Lantz 27 5 3 8 +3 30,663 37.39% −2.77%
Green Peter Bevan-Baker 24 0 0 1 +1 8,857 10.81% +6.45%
New Democratic Michael Redmond 27 0 0 0 8,997 10.97% +7.81%
  Independent 0 1 0
  Vacant 3 - -
Total 105 27 27 27 81,998
Popular vote
Liberal
40.83%
PC
37.39%
New Democratic
10.97%
Green
10.81%
Seats summary
Liberal
66.67%
PC
29.63%
Green
3.70%

Synopsis of results

2015 PEI general election - synopsis of riding results[a 1]
Riding # Federal
Riding
2011 Winning party Turnout
[a 2]
Votes[a 3]
Party Votes Share Margin
#
Margin
%
Lib PC Green NDP Total
 
Alberton-Roseville 26 EGM   Lib   Lib 1,569 53.7% 403 13.8% 85.6% 1,569 1,166 188 2,923
Belfast-Murray River 4 CAR   Lib   PC 1,203 45.1% 108 4.0% 85.5% 1,095 1,203 152 216 2,666
Borden-Kinkora 19 MPQ   Lib   PC 1,597 47.1% 443 13.1% 82.7% 1,154 1,597 511 126 3,388
Charlottetown-Brighton[a 4] 13 CHA   Lib   Lib 1,054 39.0% 22 0.8% 85.6% 1,054 1,032 352 265 2,703
Charlottetown-Lewis Point 14 CHA   Lib   Lib 1,040 34.3% 109 3.6% 79.9% 1,040 821 244 931 3,036
Charlottetown-Parkdale 11 CHA   Lib   Lib 1,166 43.7% 467 17.5% 79.9% 1,166 699 511 292 2,668
Charlottetown-Sherwood 10 CHA   Lib   Lib 1,425 45.8% 394 12.7% 81.8% 1,425 1,031 295 360 3,111
Charlottetown-Victoria Park 12 CHA   Lib   Lib 955 39.4% 289 11.9% 80.7% 955 666 456 348 2,425
Cornwall-Meadowbank 16 MPQ   Lib   Lib 1,444 46.3% 388 12.5% 81.5% 1,444 1,056 377 243 3,120
Evangeline-Miscouche 24 EGM   Lib   Lib 1,419 62.6% 833 25.8% 85.9% 1,419 586 125 138 2,268
Georgetown-St. Peters 2 CAR   PC   PC 1,448 48.0% 278 9.2% 84.8% 1,170 1,448 145 256 3,019
Kellys Cross-Cumberland 17 MPQ   Lib   Grn 2,077 54.8% 1,031 27.2% 85.2% 1,046 609 2,077 58 3,790
Kensington-Malpeque 20 MPQ   Lib   PC 1,984 54.3% 951 26.0% 82.3% 1,033 1,984 374 264 3,655
Montague-Kilmuir 3 CAR   Lib   Lib 1,060 41.8% 275 10.8% 82.5% 1,060 785 106 585 2,536
Morell-Mermaid 7 CAR   PC   PC 1,501 50.0% 387 12.9% 82.8% 1,114 1,501 177 211 3,004
O'Leary-Inverness 25 EGM   Lib   Lib 1,310 48.8% 247 8.9% 81.2% 1,310 1,063 311 2,684
Rustico-Emerald 18 MPQ   Lib   PC 1,585 47.2% 433 12.9% 85.7% 1,152 1,585 325 294 3,356
Souris-Elmira 1 CAR   PC   PC 1,179 44.4% 228 8.6% 86.2% 951 1,179 528 2,658
Stratford-Kinlock 6 CAR   PC   PC 2,155 50.3% 702 16.4% 81.4% 1,453 2,155 330 350 4,288
Summerside-St. Eleanors 22 EGM   Lib   Lib 1,246 41.2% 148 4.9% 75.6% 1,246 1,098 321 358 3,023
Summerside-Wilmot 21 EGM   Lib   Lib 1,135 39.4% 30 1.0% 74.8% 1,135 1,105 285 353 2,878
Tignish-Palmer Road 27 EGM   PC   Lib 1,486 58.2% 668 26.1% 87.6% 1,486 818 167 81 2,552
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park 8 CHA   Lib   Lib 1,354 45.7% 528 17.9% 76.6% 1,354 826 237 549 2,966
Tyne Valley-Linkletter 23 EGM   Lib   Lib 1,147 43.0% 337 12.7% 77.8% 1,147 810 240 473 2,670
Vernon River-Stratford 5 CAR   Lib   Lib 1,173 41.3% 83.3% 1,173 1,173 234 258 2,838
West Royalty-Springvale 15 CHA   Lib   Lib 1,389 37.6% 59 1.6% 82.1% 1,389 1,330 462 516 3,697
York-Oyster Bed 9 MPQ   Lib   Lib 1,938 47.7% 600 14.8% 81.1% 1,938 1,338 347 442 4,065
  1. ^ "Section 4 - Summary of Election Results". Report of the Chief Electoral Officer for the Provincial General Election - May 4, 2015 (PDF). Elections Prince Edward Island. 2015. pp. 37, 40–93. {{cite book}}: |website= ignored (help)
  2. ^ including spoilt ballots
  3. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the national popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
  4. ^ also an open seat
  = results as certified in a judicial recount
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = incumbent re-elected in same riding
  = incumbent changed allegiance
  = other incumbent renominated
  = tied for first place - settled by coin toss
Resulting composition of the 65th General Assembly of Prince Edward Island
Source Party
Lib PC Grn Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 12 3 15
Incumbent returned on coin toss 1 1
Open seats held 4 1 5
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 1 1 2
Open seats gained 3 3
Incumbent changing affiliation 1 1
Total 18 8 1 27

Results by region

Regional summary of results (2015)
Region Seats won Vote share (%) Change (pp)
Lib PC Grn Lib PC Grn NDP Lib PC Grn NDP Major swing
Cardigan 2 5 38.16 44.95 5.45 11.44 -4.38 -4.73 +2.13 +9.38    6.88
Malpeque 2 3 1 36.33 38.21 18.76 6.69 -16.54 +0.11 +13.95 +2.92    15.25
Charlottetown 7 40.69 31.08 12.41 15.82 -13.62 -0.08 +5.01 +8.85    11.24
Egmont 7 49.00 34.97 6.01 10.01 -8.01 -3.92 +3.27 +9.18    8.60
Total 18 8 1 40.83 37.39 10.81 10.98 -10.55 -2.77 +6.45 +7.82    9.19

Timeline

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Opinion polls

Voting intentions since the 2011 election.
Polling Firm Last date of polling Link Liberal PC Green NDP Island Other
Corporate Research Associates April 23, 2015 HTML 44 35 6 15
Abingdon Research April 20, 2015 PDF 43 27 12 18
Corporate Research Associates February 28, 2015 PDF 58 26 4 12 0
Corporate Research Associates November 25, 2014 PDF 50 23 11 15 0 0
Corporate Research Associates September 1, 2014 PDF 48 28 7 16 0 0
Corporate Research Associates May 22, 2014 PDF 53 23 3 21 0 0
Corporate Research Associates February 27, 2014 PDF 53 17 7 22 0 1
Corporate Research Associates November 27, 2013 PDF 49 17 7 26 0 1
Corporate Research Associates August 28, 2013 PDF 42 23 3 32 0 0
Corporate Research Associates May 28, 2013 PDF 52 22 5 21 0 1
Corporate Research Associates March 2, 2013 PDF 51 16 7 26 0 0
Corporate Research Associates December 1, 2012 PDF 45 28 5 22 0 0
Corporate Research Associates August 31, 2012 PDF 42 32 8 18 0 0
Corporate Research Associates June 4, 2012 PDF 47 26 8 18 1 1
Corporate Research Associates February 26, 2012 PDF 50 33 5 11 0 0
Corporate Research Associates November 29, 2011 PDF 53 34 4 9 0 0
2011 election October 3, 2011 51.38 40.16 4.36 3.16 0.91 0.02

Results

  • Candidates' names appear as recorded by Elections PEI
  • Party leaders' names are in bold; cabinet ministers' names are in italics.

Cardigan

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC Green NDP
4. Belfast-Murray River Charlie McGeoghegan
1,095 - 41.1%
Darlene Compton
1,203 - 45.1%
Jordan MacPhee
152 - 5.7%
Alan Hicken
216 - 8.1%
  Charlie McGeoghegan
2. Georgetown-St. Peters Russ Stewart
1,170 - 38.8%
Steven Myers
1,448 - 48.0%
Heather Gallant
145 - 4.8%
Nathan Bushey
256 - 8.5%
  Steven Myers
3. Montague-Kilmuir Allen Roach
1,060 - 41.8%
Andrew Daggett
785 - 31.0%
Jason Furness
106 - 4.2%
Mike Redmond
585 - 23.1%
  Allen Roach
7. Morell-Mermaid Daniel MacDonald
1,114 - 37.1%
Sidney MacEwen
1,501 - 50.0%
Meaghan Lister
177 - 5.9%
Edith Perry
211 - 7.0%
  Olive Crane
1. Souris-Elmira Tommy Kickham
951 - 35.8%
Colin LaVie
1,179 - 44.4%
  Susan Birt
528 - 19.9%
Colin LaVie
6. Stratford-Kinlock David Dunphy
1,453 - 33.9%
James Aylward
2,155 - 50.3%
Samantha Saunders
330 - 7.7%
Chris van Ouwerkerk
350 - 8.2%
James Aylward
5. Vernon River-Stratford* Alan McIsaac*
1,173 - 41.3%
Mary Ellen McInnis*
1,173 - 41.3%
Nicholas Graveline
234 - 8.2%
Kathleen Romans
258 - 9.1%
Alan McIsaac
  • This riding vote count resulted in a tie between McIsaac and McInnis. As a result, a coin toss was held, which determined McIsaac, the Liberal candidate, as the winner.[21]

Malpeque

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC Green NDP
19. Borden-Kinkora Ramona Roberts
1,154 - 34.1%
Jamie Fox
1,597 - 47.1%
Ranald MacFarlane
511 - 15.1%
Aleida Tweten
126 - 3.7%
George Webster
16. Cornwall-Meadowbank Heath MacDonald
1,444 - 46.3%
Michael Drake
1,056 - 33.8%
Rosalyn Abbott
377 - 12.1%
Jennifer Coughlin
243 - 7.8%
Ron MacKinley
17. Kellys Cross-Cumberland Valerie Docherty
1,046 - 27.6%
Randy Robar
609 - 16.1%
Peter Bevan-Baker
2,077 - 54.8%
Jesse Cousins
58 - 1.5%
Valerie Docherty
20. Kensington-Malpeque Paul Montgomery
1,033 - 28.3%
Matthew MacKay
1,984 - 54.3%
Lynne Lund
374 - 10.2%
Joseph Larkin
264 - 7.2%
Vacant
18. Rustico-Emerald Bertha Campbell
1,152 - 34.3%
Brad Trivers
1,585 - 47.2%
Marianne Janowicz
325 - 9.7%
Leah-Jane Hayward
294 - 8.8%
Carolyn Bertram
9. York-Oyster Bed Wade MacLauchlan
1,938 - 47.7%
Jim "Benson" Carragher
1,338 - 32.9%
Thane Bernard
347 - 8.5%
Gordon Gay
442 - 10.9%
Vacant

Charlottetown

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC Green NDP
13. Charlottetown-Brighton Jordan Brown
1,054 - 39.0%
Rob Lantz
1,032 - 38.2%
Derrick Biso
352 - 13.0%
Bob MacLean
265 - 9.8%
Vacant
14. Charlottetown-Lewis Point Kathleen Casey
1,040 - 34.3%
Dianne Young
821 - 27.0%
Doug Millington
244 - 8.0%
Gord McNeilly
931 - 30.7%
  Kathleen Casey
11. Charlottetown-Parkdale Doug Currie
1,166 - 43.7%
Lynn MacLaren
699 - 26.2%
Becka Viau
511 - 19.2%
Andrew Watts
292 - 10.9%
  Doug Currie
10. Charlottetown-Sherwood Robert Mitchell
1,425 - 45.8%
Mike Gillis
1,031 - 33.1%
Mitchell Gallant
295 - 9.5%
Karalee McAskill
360 - 11.6%
  Robert Mitchell
12. Charlottetown-Victoria Park Richard Brown
955 - 39.4%
Joey Kitson
666 - 27.5%
Darcie Lanthier
456 - 18.8%
Chris Clay
348 - 14.4%
  Richard Brown
8. Tracadie-Hillsborough Park Buck Watts
1,354 - 45.7%
Darren Creamer
826 - 27.8%
Isaac Williams
237 - 8.0%
Jason Murray
549 - 18.5%
Buck Watts
15. West Royalty-Springvale Bush Dumville
1,389 - 37.6%
Linda Clements
1,330 - 36.0%
Charles Sanderson
462 - 12.5%
Peter Meggs
516 - 14.0%
Bush Dumville

Egmont

Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Liberal PC Green NDP
26. Alberton-Roseville Pat Murphy
1,569 - 53.7%
John Griffin
1,166 - 39.9%
  Orville Lewis
188 - 6.4%
  Pat Murphy
24. Evangeline-Miscouche Sonny Gallant
1,419 - 62.6%
Debbie Montgomery
586 - 25.8%
Jordan Cameron
125 - 5.5%
Grant Gallant
138 - 6.1%
  Sonny Gallant
25. O'Leary-Inverness Robert Henderson
1,310 - 48.8%
Daniel MacDonald
1,063 - 39.6%
  Billy Mackendrick
311 - 11.6%
  Robert Henderson
22. Summerside-St. Eleanors Tina Mundy
1,246 - 41.2%
Major Stewart
1,098 - 36.3%
Caleb Adams
321 - 10.6%
Olivia Wood
358 - 11.8%
  Gerard Greenan
21. Summerside-Wilmot Janice Sherry
1,135 - 39.4%
Brian Ramsay
1,105 - 38.4%
Donald MacFadzen-Reid
285 - 9.9%
Scott Gaudet
353 - 12.3%
  Janice Sherry
27. Tignish-Palmer Road Hal Perry
1,486 - 58.2%
Joseph Profit
818 - 32.1%
Malcolm Pitre
167 - 6.5%
John A'Hearn
81 - 3.2%
  Hal Perry
23. Tyne Valley-Linkletter Paula Biggar
1,147 - 43.0%
Ryan Williams
810 - 30.3%
Shelagh Young
240 - 9.0%
Jacqueline Tuplin
473 - 17.7%
  Paula Biggar

References

  1. ^ "Saltwire | Prince Edward Island". Archived from the original on September 17, 2019. Retrieved April 27, 2019.
  2. ^ "PEI election called for May 4, 2015". Archived from the original on July 6, 2015. Retrieved April 6, 2015.
  3. ^ "Liberals win majority in P.E.I. election". CBC News. May 4, 2015. Archived from the original on March 29, 2016. Retrieved May 4, 2015.
  4. ^ "P.E.I. NDP elect Mike Redmond as party leader" Archived 2013-01-01 at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, October 13, 2012.
  5. ^ "Bevan-Baker acclaimed as P.E.I. Green Party leader". The Guardian. Charlottetown. November 3, 2012. Archived from the original on August 19, 2013. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  6. ^ "P.E.I. PC Leader Olive Crane resigns". CBC News. December 5, 2012. Archived from the original on February 26, 2015. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  7. ^ "Olive Crane resigns as P.E.I. Opposition leader". CBC News. January 30, 2013. Archived from the original on September 24, 2015. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  8. ^ "Tories name new P.E.I. Opposition leader". CBC News. January 30, 2013. Archived from the original on September 24, 2015. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  9. ^ "MLA Steven Myers named interim PC leader". CBC News. January 31, 2014. Archived from the original on May 5, 2016. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  10. ^ "Perry to step down as Opposition leader". CBC News. February 11, 2013. Archived from the original on September 24, 2015. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  11. ^ Wright, Teresa (October 3, 2013). "Hal Perry crossing floor to join Liberals". The Guardian. Archived from the original on July 14, 2014. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  12. ^ "Olive Crane kicked out of PC caucus". The Journal Pioneer. October 4, 2013. Archived from the original on October 22, 2013. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  13. ^ "P.E.I.-Liberals-and-PCs-both-looking-for-leaders". Archived from the original on December 27, 2014. Retrieved December 13, 2014.
  14. ^ "Wade MacLauchlan confirmed as P.E.I. Liberal leader". Archived from the original on February 22, 2015. Retrieved February 22, 2015.
  15. ^ "Experienced faces make up Wade MacLauchlan cabinet". CBC News. February 23, 2015. Archived from the original on February 24, 2015. Retrieved February 25, 2015.
  16. ^ "Legislative Assembly of PEI: Members". Archived from the original on February 4, 2015. Retrieved February 28, 2015.
  17. ^ "Rob Lantz celebrates Progressive Conservative leadership victory". Archived from the original on March 2, 2015. Retrieved February 28, 2015.
  18. ^ "Island Party sitting out election". Archived from the original on July 10, 2015. Retrieved April 12, 2015.
  19. ^ "PEI Votes 2015: Leaders' Debate". Archived from the original on April 29, 2015. Retrieved April 29, 2015.
  20. ^ "Leaders met in 2nd TV debate". Archived from the original on May 2, 2015. Retrieved May 1, 2015.
  21. ^ Liberal Alan McIsaac wins seat in coin toss after recount tie Archived 2015-05-22 at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, May 19, 2015.

Further reading

  • Desserud, Don; Collins, Jeff (2016). "The 2015 Provincial Election in Prince Edward Island". Canadian Political Science Review. 10 (1): 31–57. ISSN 1911-4125. Archived from the original on May 4, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.

External links

  • P.E.I. Votes 2015: Tracking the candidates
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